SOL leads the decline among major coins: after the meme pullback, can $75 hold the last line of defense?

On July 17, the crypto market saw a broad-based sell-off. Bitcoin fell below $64,000, down 1.79% over the past 24 hours; Ethereum lost the $1,900 level, dropping 3.53%. In this synchronized pullback, Solana (SOL) drew particular attention—its cumulative decline over the past 7 days reached 7.86%, to $75.12, the largest drop among the three major mainstream coins. Total crypto market cap saw net outflows of more than $1.96 billion during the day.

This price action starkly contrasts with Solana’s strength from weeks earlier, when it benefited from the meme coin frenzy and ETF inflows. As speculative enthusiasm fades, why is Solana taking a deeper retracement than Bitcoin and Ethereum? Can the key $75 level become effective support?

Why Solana is leading the decline in this pullback

Solana’s underperformance versus Bitcoin and Ethereum in this broad sell-off is not accidental. From a fund-structure perspective, SOL’s earlier rally was mainly driven by two layers: a surge in on-chain activity brought by the meme coin speculation frenzy, and incremental capital driven by market expectations for Solana spot ETFs. Both types of capital are highly speculative; their inflows tend to be pulse-like. Once market sentiment turns, outflows often accelerate faster than “allocation-type” capital.

In terms of correlation, as of April 2026, Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with SOL is 0.72, while Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with ETH is 0.78. This means SOL’s linkage with Bitcoin is weaker than that of ETH. As a result, SOL’s price action includes more volatility factors unique to its own ecosystem—when these factors shift from positive contributions to negative ones, SOL’s downside naturally becomes larger.

In addition, compared with Bitcoin and Ethereum, SOL still has a gap in terms of market-cap scale and liquidity depth. This means that even the same magnitude of fund outflows can create a bigger price impact in the SOL market. Short-term positions accumulated during the meme boom tend to be closed out in a concentrated manner when prices fall, further amplifying the decline.

The technical implications of the $75 support level and historical validation

$75 is the most closely watched technical price level in the current market. From price behavior, SOL has repeatedly tested the $75–$77 range in recent weeks, and many technical analysts regard this area as the key zone for reclaiming the range. MCO Global’s analysis indicates that SOL is currently in the 4th-wave mini-support zone, with key water levels near $80.38, $78.22, and $76.52. If buyers can hold this area, the bullish structure can remain intact.

From a broader technical framework, SOL is currently trading below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $76.63, and is much further below the 200-day EMA of $97.65. Failure to reclaim these key technical levels implies that sellers are still in control of the market. The MACD has fallen below the signal line and produced a bearish histogram. The RSI has dropped to 46 and broken below the neutral 50 level. Taken together, these indicators point to the fact that downside risk has not been fully released.

If $75 is effectively broken, the market will sequentially test $72 and $70. Deeper support lies at $67.50—a level that triggered a significant rebound in late June. If $67.50 also fails, it could open room for movement toward the $60 range.

How the fade of the meme boom amplifies SOL’s drawdown

Solana in this cycle is deeply tied to the meme coin ecosystem. In Q4 2024, meme coins once accounted for 50% of Solana’s weekly trading volume. Although the current share has fallen to around 20%, meme coin speculation remains an important component of on-chain trading on Solana.

Over three months, the activity volume for Pump.fun—the meme coin launch platform—plunged by about 80%, and the 7-day average “token graduation rate” fell to 0.26%. This change directly drags down Solana’s network fees: average daily network fees drop to 5,300 SOL, far below the 33,000 SOL level in January. The sharp, cliff-like decline in fees reflects a real contraction in on-chain economic activity.

This transmission mechanism is two-way: the meme boom pushes SOL prices up, while the retreat of meme activity accelerates SOL price declines. When speculative capital exits, not only do meme coins face sell pressure, but SOL—the underlying network asset—also encounters additional selling pressure. The earlier upside in SOL included a premium based on expectations of continued prosperity in the meme ecosystem; when that expectation is corrected, the price naturally needs a larger adjustment to absorb the change.

Is declining on-chain activity on Solana a sign of deeper concerns?

On-chain data provides another dimension for assessing the health of the Solana network. Driven by activity in meme coin trading, Solana rose to the top spot among 7-day public-chain activity in early July, with active addresses at about 29.84 million—far higher than other public chains. At one point, this data highlighted Solana’s network vitality.

However, the spike in active addresses is highly correlated with meme coin speculation. As speculative activity cools, the sustainability of active-address growth is questionable. Even more noteworthy is that Solana’s developer activity has fallen by about 29% from its peak in May 2025, reaching 942 monthly active developers in March 2026. Although the network still has more than 1,000 active developers—accounting for 23% of global blockchain development—slowing developer growth could affect the ecosystem’s long-term innovation momentum.

From the perspective of ecosystem fundamentals, Solana’s DEX average daily trading volume is about $2.09 billion, and DApp revenue reached $262 million in Q2 2026. These figures suggest the network’s core layer is still functioning. But whether user activity levels and trading frequency—supporting these metrics—can be maintained after the meme retreat is a key variable for evaluating Solana’s long-term value.

Is the competitive landscape with Ethereum changing?

The competition between Solana and Ethereum entered a new stage in 2026. In terms of technical performance, Solana leads all public chains with network throughput of 1,635 TPS. In the RWA (real-world assets) sector, the value of tokenized assets on Solana doubled in 2026 to a record $3.62 billion. The number of RWA holders surpassed 300,000 wallets, ranking first among all blockchains. Ethereum still leads by total RWA value at $16.3 billion, but Solana’s catch-up pace exceeds expectations.

A Morgan Stanley analyst noted that SOL’s correlation with Bitcoin is 0.72, below Ethereum’s 0.78. This implies that SOL is more effective as a diversified investment instrument. This perspective provides institutional-level endorsement for Solana’s long-term allocation value.

However, the evolution of the competitive landscape is not a one-directional positive. Ethereum still leads in areas such as institutional adoption, total value locked in DeFi, and ecosystem maturity. Solana needs to build more sustainable value propositions beyond the meme narrative—AI Agent, deeper DeFi, and institutionalization are becoming the next set of narratives. Whether these narratives can truly take root and attract long-term capital will determine whether Solana can find a new growth engine after the meme boom fades.

How losing the $75 line would reshape market expectations

$75 is not just a technical price level—it is also a watershed in market psychology. Looking at Solana’s historical performance from 2023 at similar price levels, Solana formed consolidation patterns. If $75 can hold, SOL may stabilize in the $75–$78 range and accumulate momentum for the next rebound. Analysts note that if support holds, potential upside targets are $100 and $120.

But if $75 is broken with heavy volume, market expectations will fundamentally change. First, this would confirm that the short-term trend has shifted from a pullback to a downside move, potentially triggering more stop-loss orders and forced selling. Second, losing this key psychological level would weaken long-side confidence, challenging the logic of “buying the dip.” A deeper support zone from $71.17 to $64.68 may become the new focal point of the battle.

More importantly, the gain or loss of $75 will affect how the market evaluates Solana’s overall narrative framework. If this level fails, the market may reexamine the fundamental question of whether Solana is still in a long-term uptrend channel, rather than treating it as merely a typical pullback.

Summary

As of July 17, 2026, Solana completed a seven-day cumulative decline of 7.86% at a price of $75.12, making it the weakest performer among major coins. This price performance results from multiple overlapping factors: the fade of the meme coin boom weakens support from on-chain economic activity; the rapid outflow of speculative capital amplifies the magnitude of downside price movement; and technical indicators show that sellers still dominate the market.

With $75 as the most critical technical support level right now, whether Solana can hold or lose it will determine the direction of the near-term trend. If it holds, SOL could stabilize in the $75–$78 range; if it fails, downside would test $72, then $70, and even $67.50 sequentially.

From a mid-to-long-term perspective, Solana’s ecosystem fundamentals are not entirely bleak. Breakthroughs in RWA, increasing institutional attention, and leadership in technical performance provide a potential value base. But how the narrative vacuum after the meme retreat is filled will be the core variable affecting Solana’s future direction.

FAQ

Q: What are the main reasons Solana’s seven-day decline of 7.86% happened?

A: The main drivers include the retreat of meme coin speculation leading to contraction in on-chain economic activity, the rapid outflow of speculative capital, and—amid the broader market pullback—SOL taking heavier sell pressure due to its deep linkage with the meme ecosystem.

Q: Why is $75 the key support level for Solana?

A: Analysts consider the $75–$77 range the key zone for reclaiming the range, and it is also the price level SOL has tested multiple times previously. Technical analysis indicates that if this area is effectively broken, downside will test $72, $70, and even $67.50.

Q: How much impact does the meme coin retreat have on Solana?

A: Meme coins once accounted for 50% of Solana’s weekly trading volume, and that share has now fallen to around 20%. Over the past three months, Pump.fun’s activity volume dropped by about 80%, causing Solana’s average daily network fees to fall from 33,000 SOL to 5,300 SOL.

Q: What does the competitive landscape between Solana and Ethereum look like?

A: Solana leads in TPS (1,635) and the number of RWA holders (over 300,000), but Ethereum still has advantages in total RWA value ($16.3 billion) and institutional adoption. The two are moving toward differentiated development paths.

Q: What risks might Solana face in the future?

A: Major risks include the narrative vacuum period after the meme retreat, slowing growth in developer activity, further downside in Bitcoin that could drag the broader market, and competitive pressure from other public chains.