MicroStrategy sold 704 BTC in 2022 and then started a bull market; will history repeat this time?

Yesterday MicroStrategy announced it would sell coins, roughly 20k coins, and last week they sold a total of 3,500 coins. Many people saw MicroStrategy selling coins and said it's bearish!

I don't think so. MicroStrategy selling coins actually sends a signal to the market—you can't kill me!

MicroStrategy has sold 20,000 coins so far. Don't think that's a lot. MicroStrategy holds a total of 840,000 coins. 20,000 coins represent 2.38% of the total, almost negligible, but it buys them breathing room, giving them enough cash flow to pay dividends.

In my June 26 article, I actually gave MicroStrategy a few pieces of advice. The first was to sell some coins, but to do it slowly, little by little, not all at once.

In fact, that's exactly what they did. They sold 1,363 coins on June 30 and 2,225 coins on July 6. This volume won't have a huge impact on the market—far less than BlackRock selling $400-20k worth of coins at once.

The second piece of advice was to lower the STREC dividend, but they actually raised it. They had no choice, because STREC had de-pegged too much. By raising it first, they stabilize STREC's price. I think later they'll need to find a way to lower the dividend.

So next, they may sell another 17,000 coins. If they keep this pace, selling 1,000 coins at a time, I think it's fine. At most, it affects the market a little. And the market actually feeds on "expectations." The biggest impact comes from dropping this expectation, which is what happened yesterday—the coin price dropped from $63,000 to $61,000. When they actually sell, I think the impact will be much smaller.

Now let's go back to the last time MicroStrategy sold coins in 2022. On December 22, 2022, MicroStrategy sold 704 coins at an average price of $16,776, totaling $11.8 million. At that time, MicroStrategy held 131,694 coins, representing 0.5%.

Here are a few data points—pay close attention. The percentage sold last time was much higher than this time! This time they sold 3,500 coins, representing 0.4%.

So don't think the volume sold this time is large, even though the dollar amount is much higher than last time.

Second, the average selling price last time was $16,776. What was the bottom price in the last bear market? Around $15,500. You can check the K-line history yourself. About 20 days later, Bitcoin's rally started, and it saw its first major surge, jumping from $16,500 straight to about $23,000, completing the first post-bear market charge!

MicroStrategy may not sell all 17,000 coins either. If the market improves later, their selling plan might be paused. Because if the market improves, the stock price rises, and they can raise funds again, easing the financial pressure. So this is just a "plan" authorized for selling coins, not a mandatory process!

So, don't interpret it as "will definitely sell 20,000 BTC." More accurately, this is a liquidity insurance policy the company has prepared for itself.

Finally, let me share my view on the market.

From a macro perspective, after the AI/semiconductor sector has experienced a long period of significant gains, capital rotation is starting to appear. Meanwhile, the crypto market has undergone nearly 10 months of adjustment, and overall sentiment is relatively low.

Historical experience tells us that markets often don't rise only after all the bad news is priced in. Instead, they start trading the future early while most people are still pessimistic.

I'm not saying the market has definitely entered a full bull run, but standing at this point in time, I think there's every reason to be relatively optimistic about the coming period. At the very least, a decent rebound is not impossible.

As for those who have been consistently missing the boat and shorting repeatedly, if the market really enters a rebound phase, what they face next is likely to be a truly tough time.