I’ve been “lurking” for a long time, but I still can’t help saying this: when you see “whales entering the market” on-chain, you feel like you want to follow—but don’t get excited yet… You need to figure out whether that amount is actually being accumulated, or whether it’s being hedged/arbitraged. Lots of big transfers come in, and at the same time there may be perpetual short positions too, or coins are being thrown into pools to earn funding/fee rates—so the net exposure is really not as much as you think. If you buy along with them, you’re basically taking on someone else’s volatility.

Recently, people have been interpreting ETF fund flows together with U.S. stock risk appetite, which looks pretty lively—but when it comes to what happens on-chain, it’s best to go back to “how much direction they ultimately want to expose.” I personally usually keep an eye on two things: whether there’s net spot inflow, and whether there are offsetting positions on the derivatives side. Also, see whether they’re putting it into deep-liquidity pools to provide liquidity… Anyway, don’t treat “they moved” as “that’s bullish.”