The White House denies it, and oil prices haven't surged: Why is the market so restrained this time?

If it were before, the White House denying the US-Iran draft would likely cause a wave of emotional rally in the oil market first, with traders rushing in as if hearing an alarm. But this time is different; oil prices haven't exaggerated geopolitical risks and instead seem a bit "worldly." The reason is simple: the market now trusts macro logic more than single news.

In a high-interest-rate environment, the pressure on crude oil demand is real. High rates make financing expensive, companies slow expansion, and consumption and transportation activities tend to cool down. Oil traders are not afraid of the Middle East, but more afraid of the risk that "demand gradually weakens," which is not easy to see at a glance. Geopolitical conflicts are like fireworks—bright but quick; high interest rates are like air conditioning—gradually lowering the temperature. The former stimulates, the latter is deadly.

But oil prices can't completely lie flat either, because inventories are still low. Low inventories mean the market has little buffer space; if supply-side issues occur again, prices will immediately be pulled up. So, the current oil market is like a tug-of-war: on one side, macro demand suppression; on the other, low inventories supporting the floor. In the short term, oil prices may continue to fluctuate weakly; in the medium term, as long as the geopolitical situation doesn't truly ease, oil prices will find it hard to completely lose their risk premium. #WTI原油失守90美元