#美伊谈判博弈 The game process of the US-Iran negotiations is significantly influencing Bitcoin's short-term trend through two pathways: "risk appetite" and "US dollar liquidity." Currently, the relationship between the two can be summarized as: escalation of military conflict drags Bitcoin down due to safe-haven sentiment and deleveraging; while progress in ceasefire agreements boosts risk appetite and drives Bitcoin rebound.

Recent market performance is as follows:

· Military escalation → decline: When the situation worsens (e.g., Iran attacks U.S. military bases), market panic and leverage liquidations directly impact the market. For example, on May 28, when the conflict escalated, Bitcoin dropped below $73,000, with over $420 million in leveraged positions liquidated.
· Ceasefire positive → rise: When news of a ceasefire agreement emerges, market risk appetite recovers. Bitcoin quickly recovers the $74,000 level, and the S&P 500 also hit a record high due to this news.

Deeper logic: "Dual withdrawal" of institutional funds

Behind recent volatility is a more critical driver than retail sentiment— the withdrawal of institutional capital.

1. Geopolitical risk premium diminishes: JPMorgan pointed out that as expectations of U.S.-Iran tensions ease, the "currency devaluation trade" strategy that previously drove funds into Bitcoin and gold is unwinding. This means that funds previously bought Bitcoin to hedge inflation and dollar depreciation caused by war are now exiting.
2. Massive ETF outflows: This shift in logic has led to real cash outflows. In the last week of May alone, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $2 billion in outflows. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a single-day outflow of $528 million on May 27, marking the second-largest single-day net outflow in the fund’s history.

Current risk focus: the agreement is not yet finalized

The delicate point now is that the market has partially priced in the "ceasefire" expectation, but the agreement itself still has uncertainties.

Although U.S. Vice President Vance acknowledged significant progress in negotiations, as of May 31, 2026, this 60-day ceasefire memorandum of understanding has not been finally approved by Trump. Iran also denied reports that the "agreement has been finalized."

This means that current prices already incorporate some optimistic expectations. If Trump formally signs the agreement later, the market may see a short-term gentle rally; but if negotiations break down and conflict resumes, due to unmet expectations and safe-haven sentiment returning, Bitcoin could face further selling pressure.

Summary

The current US-Iran situation is like a "switch" for Bitcoin: expectations of peace are the catalysts for upward movement, while the smoke of war accelerates declines.

It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent official announcements, especially Trump’s final stance on the 60-day ceasefire agreement. If the agreement is officially implemented, it may boost market sentiment in the short term, but caution is needed regarding the risk of institutional profit-taking on good news.