What will happen to oil prices next? The answer may not be a sharp drop, but rather a "test of patience"

If you ask whether oil prices will continue to decline, my judgment is: **In the short term, it’s more like a patience test than a sudden collapse.** WTI falls below $90, Brent also weakens, and after the White House denies the US-Iran draft, the market has not overly amplified geopolitical risks, indicating that the trading focus in the oil market has shifted to the suppression of demand by high interest rates. In other words, the market is now more worried about “demand gradually weakening” rather than “supply suddenly encountering issues.”

But oil prices don’t seem likely to easily break through and fall all the way down because inventories are still low. Low inventories mean the market has little buffer space; once there’s any disruption on the supply side, prices will quickly be pulled back up. So, the most likely short-term state of oil prices is a tug-of-war between macro pressures and inventory support. You can think of it as: someone pressing down from above, someone pushing up from below, and neither side wanting to let go first.

Therefore, future oil prices are more likely to enter a period of oscillation and consolidation rather than a one-sided trend. If macroeconomic data continues to be weak, oil prices will remain under pressure; if geopolitical tensions escalate again, prices will rebound quickly. The real key is not any single piece of news, but which side—demand or inventories—gives a clearer signal first. The current oil market is best summarized by one phrase: **It’s not that prices aren’t moving, but that they’re waiting for the next truly decisive signal.**#WTI原油失守90美元