#WTI原油失守90美元

June Crude Oil Market Outlook

With the blockbuster drama of the "Memorandum of Understanding Rashomon" directed by the US and Iran in full swing, the crude oil market fell below $90 at the end of May, closing at $88.5. Looking ahead to June's crude oil trends, I believe the story between the US and Iran won't have a quick ending, and the market will mainly fluctuate within a wide range.

First, the most direct factor affecting oil prices is the US-Iran conflict. I think although there are reports of a memorandum of understanding being reached, both sides are still in a tug-of-war stage. On one hand, the versions of the memorandum disclosed by the US and Iran differ significantly, reflecting that their core demands are still far apart at this stage. However, as I mentioned before, the current deadlock is difficult for both sides to accept, so I believe there is a high probability that the US and Iran will reach an agreement before the end of June. Currently, it is just a process of bargaining back and forth before both sides finalize an agreement for their respective interests. Therefore, this pattern of negotiations and conflicts will likely continue for some time. Under these circumstances, the probability of oil prices fluctuating within a range is very high.

Additionally, although the short-term geopolitical negotiations have temporarily pressured international oil prices due to supply-demand imbalances, from a fundamental supply and demand perspective, the crude oil market does not have a basis for sustained decline. On the supply side, global crude oil supply elasticity is limited. Wang Yingmin stated that previously, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused unprecedented shocks to the global crude oil industry, directly changing the supply pattern of the global oil market. Data from OPEC show that in April, OPEC member countries reduced their crude oil output by nearly 10 million barrels per day compared to February; IEA (International Energy Agency) data also indicate that global oil supply has decreased by about 13 million barrels per day due to this conflict, with Gulf countries reducing their oil output by 14 million barrels per day compared to before the conflict. Moreover, Russian oil facilities have been attacked by drones, with April's oil production down by 300k barrels per day month-on-month. If such attacks continue, production could decrease another 500k barrels per day in the second half of the year.

In summary, crude oil prices in June are expected to initially fluctuate within a wide range. Everyone can consider trading around the 85-95 dollar range, going short at highs and long at lows, with swing trading for better gains. Wishing everyone daily prosperity!