Before the June decision, the busiest isn't the Federal Reserve, but traders' daydreams

Whenever there's a Federal Reserve decision approaching, the market automatically enters "daydream mode." A single sentence can be broken down into three layers of meaning, one word can lead to five different paths. After Wash officially takes office, these daydreams will become even more intense, because the market has already defaulted: the policy style may become more tightening, more hardline, and less lenient.

But daydreams are just that—daydreams. What truly matters are the data. Before the June meeting, traders will focus on inflation, employment, wages, consumption, and financial conditions, as if working on an endless final exam report. As soon as any of these indicators show signs of overheating, the market will immediately increase the probability of rate hikes; conversely, if the data starts cooling down, hawkish expectations may quickly retreat.

Therefore, the focus of the June decision isn't just "whether to raise rates," but also "how far market daydreams differ from the Federal Reserve's reality." Often, the real volatility doesn't come from policy itself, but from expectations falling short. Traders fear not bad news itself, but rather imagining the bad news too thoroughly in advance, only to find that when it’s actually announced, it’s not as shocking as they thought. #股票交易挑战最高赢17000U