Last night, while snacking on some late-night food, I flipped through the pool of a certain chain game. The more I looked, the more it felt like a familiar plot: production keeps pouring out, but demand can’t keep up. Inflation dilutes the rewards until they’re as thin as watered-down liquid. People who come in later can only pick up the sell pressure created by whoever came before them. Put plainly, it’s not that “the number of players is going down”—it’s that the economic model first empties itself out. Everyone’s just calculating when they’ll get their money back, and nobody really wants to hold that production token long-term.

The recent uproar over NFT royalties is pretty similar too: one side wants to protect creators’ income, while the other side worries that secondary liquidity will get “taxed” away… In the end, it all comes down to one point: where does the cash flow come from, and who’s going to foot the bill?

With so much information noise these days, my noise-reduction strategy is just one line: I only look at actual on-chain buy orders and the return paths of funds. If I can’t make sense of the narrative, I don’t follow it—I’d rather miss out.