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Without interest rate cuts to release liquidity, there is no more capital to help push gold to new highs. Currently, the world is panicking over inflation and rate hikes, and the recent volume-less rise and fall already indicate that gold is in an untradeable state. The two points that could trigger a volume-driven sharp decline in gold are:
First, a major shock in the US stock market, with AI stocks being sold off, causing a significant drop in the index, which then propagates to gold being sold off as traders cover their positions.
Second, in mid-June, the first Federal Reserve meeting of the month, which signals a hawkish stance, always triggers gold sell-offs.
Funds are quite fearful at this point, and it’s difficult for bullish factors to stimulate a breakout in the short term. What is more likely to be seen are volume-less downward trends, or a range-bound movement as the Middle East continues negotiations and conflicts, or a downward spike. Be cautious about overly bullish expectations.