Bitcoin Looks for the Next Breakthrough Step#美国寻求战略比特币储备

Bitcoin closed April with its best monthly performance in a year, rising 11.87%, breaking the psychological key level of $80,000, and rebounding nearly 30% from the low of $62,000 set in early February 2026. This rally occurred against a macro backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions, key Federal Reserve policy milestones, and the strong return of institutional demand and legislative momentum as dual engines. However, as May begins, market trends are far from uniform. The market is currently undergoing a natural consolidation phase, digesting recent gains while laying the groundwork for the next move. Two narratives are competing for dominance, and the eventual winner is likely to determine Bitcoin’s trajectory in the first half of 2026.
Bullish Argument — Institutions, Legislation, and a Market Poised for Action: The institutional buying that drove April’s rally has not waned; in fact, it continues to accelerate. On the first day of May alone, $630 million flowed into the US spot Bitcoin ETF, extending a two-month streak of net inflows, making April the best month since October last year. Beyond capital flows, legislative developments are also making decisive shifts. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott confirmed on Friday that the milestone Digital Asset Market Structure Bill, the CLARITY Act, will enter bipartisan joint review in May, followed by a full Senate vote—an important step forward in regulatory clarity long awaited by institutional investors.
Derivatives position data further reinforce the bullish case — perpetual contract net shorts have flipped to record levels, reaching the deepest short bias in the dataset’s history. Historically, such extreme readings often signal sharp turning points in market direction. Once spot demand or market sentiment improves, conditions for large-scale short covering are in place.
Reasons to Stay Patient — Consolidation, Resistance, and Macro Obstacles Ahead: A more cautious view of Bitcoin’s current position is not bearish; it simply reflects the obstacles yet to be overcome. Bitcoin recently retook the $80,000 level, supported by relief buying after US tech giants reported better-than-expected earnings. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple all posted double-digit revenue growth, briefly reigniting confidence in the AI growth story. CryptoQuant pointed out that April’s rally was mainly driven by futures activity rather than broad spot demand (see this week’s most notable data analysis for details).
On-chain data confirm this dynamic: as prices approached $80,000, short-term holders took the opportunity to realize profits on a large scale, forming natural resistance zones near the true market average (about $78,000) and short-term holder cost basis (around $79,000). Meanwhile, support levels look quite solid. The dense accumulation zone between $65,000 and $70,000 reflects genuine buyer confidence at lower levels. Macro factors warrant close attention. Due to ongoing conflicts in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices remain high, boosting inflation and reducing central banks’ willingness to cut rates. The Federal Reserve will keep rates at 3.5%–3.75% this week, but with four dissenting votes—the most since 1992—indicating increasing internal divisions.
$80,000 remains a key test in the coming weeks. A successful breakout could attract new buyers, confirming that April’s recovery has laid a solid foundation. The macro calendar for May is packed: US employment reports, speeches from nine Federal Reserve officials throughout the week, and major corporate earnings all draw market attention. Current prices are still 38% below historical highs; the recovery story is still in its early chapters—but each page is turning.