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U.S. Treasury Market Pressures Fed Chair Warsh for Rate Hike; 2-Year Yield Hits 4.15%

GateNews
Forex
The $31 trillion U.S. Treasury market is signaling that current interest rates are too low, with traders pricing in expectations for at least 25 basis points of rate increases by October, according to market dynamics discussed by analysts including Barclays and Brandywine Global. The 2-year Treasury yield has surged to around 4.15%, well above the Federal Reserve's current policy rate range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the highest level in over a year. This divergence, which began in March amid strong economic data, intensifies as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to lead his first policy meeting and press conference. Market observers including WisdomTree and BlueBay assess that the neutral interest rate—the theoretical rate neither stimulating nor restricting the economy—may be higher than the Fed's March projection of 3.1%, with inflation-adjusted estimates at 1.8% versus the Fed's median estimate of 1.1%.
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