Goldman Sachs: U.S. Stock Market Sentiment at 86th Percentile, 4 Risks Approaching Warning Levels

According to a latest report by Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist Ben Snider, U.S. stock market sentiment has reached the 86th percentile historically, remaining below the 2000 dot-com bubble peak (100th percentile) and 2021 bull market high (95th percentile), but showing accelerating risk signals.

The S&P 500 surged 15% over roughly two months before a pullback on June 5, with return-to-volatility ratios hitting the 99th percentile over 46 years of data. Snider identified four historical catalysts for bull market reversals—speculative excess, growth deterioration, massive equity issuance, and Fed tightening—noting each condition is now closer to warning thresholds than at year-start, though none fully triggered. IPO activity is rebounding, input costs are pressuring profit margins, and rate markets are pricing in higher odds of Fed rate hikes.