Bitcoin Enters Distribution Phase as Short-Term Holders' Cost Basis Drops Below $77,800

According to Bitfinex analysts on June 9, Bitcoin has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase, with short-term holders' cost basis falling below $77,800. Spot cumulative volume has turned negative after strong buying in April-May, indicating prior entrants are selling as the market weakens. These underwater investors create fresh selling pressure on each price bounce. Bitfinex noted that on-chain and fund flow data suggest a distribution-led market rather than typical panic capitulation, with the market maintaining a defensive structure until spot demand recovers.

Glassnode data showed daily realized losses reached $1.35 billion recently, with $770 million from long-term holder liquidations. The realized profit-loss ratio dropped sharply from 3.16 on May 7 to 0.29, approaching February's panic-selling levels and reflecting rapidly deteriorating market sentiment.